Paper details

Paper authors	Alexander Gaus
In panel on	From Reaction to Anticipation: How to Expand and Finance Anticipatory Humanitarian Action
Paper presenter(s) will be presenting	In-Person / Online

Abstract

Anticipatory action and forecast-based financing – two different terms used to describe what is essentially the same approach of triggering humanitarian assistance before imminent disasters strike – rely at their core on robust, detailed and reliable forecasts of humanitarian needs related to the severity of an expected crisis. With the science of forecasting needs is still in its infancy, this conceptual paper will provide a critical look at the way the field currently forecasts humanitarian needs and how organizations engaged in anticipatory action seek to increase the robustness of data and forecasts while avoiding biases and analytical errors. The paper will also discuss the idea of utilizing past needs assessments to forecast needs as a potential alternative to existing forecasting approaches.

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