Paper details
| Paper authors | Sonja Fransen and Kerilyn Schewel |
| In panel on | Reimagining Humanitarian Response in the Face of Compounding Global Risks |
| Paper presenter(s) will be presenting |
In-Person / |
Abstract
While research has provided ample evidence on how climate hazards influence migration patterns, less attention has been given to climate risks faced by displaced populations. This study addresses this gap by analyzing and comparing refugees’ climate risks in their origin and destination countries, focusing on global trends and providing a detailed case study of Africa—a region hosting large numbers of displaced people and facing severe climate risks. Drawing on the Climate-driven INFORM Risk Index and UNHCR Population Statistics from 2013 to 2022, we study three key sub-dimensions of climate risk: hazard and exposure, socioeconomic vulnerability, and coping capacity. We then apply a migration corridor analysis that links origin and destination countries to study how climate risks (low, medium, or high) evolve when refugees move from origin to host countries.
Our analysis reveals a global rise in the number of refugees originating from countries with high climate risk and finds that 75% of global refugees remain in high or medium climate risk host countries. These trends have intensified in recent years. In Africa, we find that shorter-distance displacement—particularly to neighboring or regional host countries—can reduce exposure to hazards but often does not reduce overall climate risk, as many refugees remain in countries with high levels of social and institutional vulnerability. However, those who are able to travel longer distances, particularly intercontinentally, typically access destinations with lower overall climate risk. Our findings underscore the social determinants of climate risk—societal factors in both sending and receiving nations frequently overshadow hazard exposure in determining climate risks for refugees—and highlight the need for systemic reforms that address the structural and institutional dimensions of climate risk to better support displaced populations.
