Paper: Extreme Heat Early Warning for Anticipatory Actions: Lessons from Small Businesses in India

Paper details

Paper authors Mihir R. Bhatt, Vishal Pathak, Khayal Trivedi
In panel on Getting Ahead of Disasters by Connecting Early Warning and Anticipatory Action That Works for All
Paper presenter(s) will be presenting In-Person / Online

Abstract

Abstract: As extreme heat intensifies under climate change, its disproportionate impacts on small and informal businesses—particularly those led by women—demand urgent attention. In India, these enterprises often operate with minimal infrastructure and limited access to safety nets, rendering them highly vulnerable to climate shocks. This paper presents evidence and lessons from field-based implementation of early warning and anticipatory action strategies by the All India Disaster Mitigation Institute (AIDMI). The findings focus on how localized forecasting, community-based planning, and gender-inclusive dissemination mechanisms can transform early warning systems (EWS) into tools of resilience for the most exposed.
India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) now provides seven-day extreme heat forecasts through the Bharat Forecasting System, while the NDMA’s “Sachet” mobile app delivers geo-targeted alerts across 12 languages. AIDMI integrated these platforms with participatory training sessions for over 2,000 small business owners across 10 cities. These trainings enabled anticipatory actions such as adjusting inventory, altering work hours, build shaded work area, change in the location, modification in process and planning, required changes in behaviour and improving heat-health protections. Women entrepreneurs were central to this effort, using social networks to expand reach and embed preparedness within daily business routines.
Despite demonstrated benefits, gaps remain in policy integration, financing mechanisms, and institutional coordination. Municipal heat action plans often overlook small businesses, and the absence of anticipatory finance—such as insurance or contingency grants—limits actionability.
At the WCHS 2025 panel “Getting Ahead of Disasters,” this paper (not academic, more practitioners perspectives) argues that connecting early warning to anticipatory action must centre on local agency, equity, and systemic linkages to truly work for all.

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