Paper details

Paper authors	Timmo Gaasbeek
In panel on	Changing the paradigm on water programming in fragile and dry contexts
Paper presenter(s) will be presenting	In-Person / Online

Abstract

Since the 1970s, the Sahel has been in the news regularly when droughts contributed to severe food insecurity. Since then, per capita food production has reduced due to population growth, arable land running out, and sluggish agricultural productivity growth after 1990. This means that the region has become increasingly dependent on food imports, which increases local vulnerabilities and drains national economies of foreign currency.
Climate change adaptation is a hot topic in the region, but Sahelian rainfall patterns are often not well understood. Until about 2000, desertification was the buzzword. After that, the 'regreening of the Sahel' brought optimism. In reality, rainfall in the Sahel follows a pattern of alternating dry and wet phases. The Sahel is currently in a wet phase, which means that at some point not too far away a new dry phase will begin. On top of this, rainfall has structurally reduced, despite models mostly forecasting an increase in rainfall with global warming. This will lead to a structural reduction in food production for up to two decades.
A mitigation strategy is needed, focusing on (1) increasing productivity in wet areas, (2) water conservation in intermediate areas, (3) delaying migration from dry areas, and (4) increasing urban absorption capacities.

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