Paper details
| Paper authors | Rachel Sider, Ana Marie Dizon |
| In panel on | Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile, Conflict-Affected, and Vulnerable (FCV) Contexts: Strategies for Protracted Crises |
| Paper presenter(s) will be presenting |
In-Person / |
Abstract
Unlike more predictable extreme weather events or isolated climate shocks, displacement can result
from a combination of hazards – ranging from conflict and political instability to environmental
stressors – or may be a consequence of a single trigger such as a flood, storm or drought. This
makes forecasting displacement even more challenging as it requires understanding a fluid and
rapidly changing landscape shaped by both human and environmental factors, which are themselves
inter-connected.
As climate-related hazards increasingly affect displacement, predictive tools to better anticipate and
mitigate the humanitarian impacts of such movements have emerged. Drawing on learning from the
evolution of the Danish Refugee Council's approaches from displacement forecasting to action. It
looks in particular at DRC and partners' approaches to integrating environmental, social and conflict
indicators to consider the intersectionality of climate and conflict risks, the importance of ground
truthing such models with local early warning systems and community-level protection indicators. The
article highlights how these forecasting and early warning systems are being used to inform
responses on the ground that support displaced people before displacement, as they move and upon
arrival in host communities. The article shows how these promising practices, such as protection
awareness raising, community dialogues, social cohesion activities, anticipatory cash distributions can
help to prevent and mitigate humanitarian needs arising from displacement, among other based on
data from pilots in Somalia, South Sudan and Burkina Faso. Lastly, the article puts forward
recommendations for how this potential can be fully realized in FCV settings, including encouraging
more inclusive anticipatory action frameworks that prioritize the most at-risk populations, including
those displaced by conflict.
